(Photo courtesy of Tess Rousey)
May 31, 2025
By Tess Rousey
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You've waited more than ten years to draw your dream mule deer tag, and this was your lucky year. In this unit, you have the chance to kill that buck that's taken up residency in your dreams, so you spare no time and no expense. You finally have the excuse to buy that extremely accurate and flat-shooting 6.5 PRC you’ve been eyeing. You know that good glass is worth the money, so you top it off with a new 18X scope. You want pure precision, so you reload your own ammo for the most fine-tuned accuracy and consistency. And you practice day in, day out, in all weather. You have all the confidence in the world for this hunt.
It's the week of the hunt, and you’ve been hunting hard. You're tired but still confident in your abilities. It’s the last day, and finally, that buck you’ve been chasing made a mistake. He chased a doe out into a clearing. You range him at 700 yards. You’re sitting at the base of a tree, rock solid. Zeroing the rock in front of him and the tree behind him, you’re confident in your yardage, plus or minus 30 yards. The wind is fairly light, 4-7 mph, at least where you’re at. It's last light; you know this is your last chance and this is the buck of your dreams. Do you take the shot?
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You may run the numbers quickly in your head, know the shots you’ve taken in the past in similar conditions and have confidence in your abilities, but does your confidence match the facts?
THE MONTE CARLO METHOD A shooting class, like those at Gunsite, gives you the skills you need to put shots on target at an effective range. (Photo courtesy of Tess Rousey) Long-range hunting discussions tend to be polarizing depending on who you talk with. Long-range shooting distances and precision-hunting distances vary significantly. Long distances in North Carolina vary significantly from Wyoming’s wide-open country. But what is considered a long-range hunting shot in Wyoming? And what ethically should be the longest-range shot in vast terrain and weather such as the Cowboy State with your skill level?
Luckily, we can take opinion out of those questions and look at the raw data and statistical probability using the Monte Carlo method. The Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical technique that predicts possible outcomes of an uncertain event. Computer programs use this method to analyze past data and predict a range of future outcomes based on a choice of action. This technique is used in several industries, from businesses calculating risks of price increases to online gaming to professional sports teams.
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(Photo courtesy of Tess Rousey) If you have studied long-range shooting at all, you’ve probably heard of or read one of Brian Litz’s many books including Accuracy and Precision for Long Range Shooting: A Practical Guide for Riflemen . In this book, Litz discusses how various uncertainties affect your hit percentage. Through his creation of the WEZ (Weapon Employment Zone) analysis tool, you can gain some insight into the most important factors to increase hits at long-range. The WEZ tool utilizes a Monte Carlo simulation to plot out hundreds or thousands of possible outcomes of where your shot would land based on your system, ammo, and environmental inputs such as wind and estimated range. After running 1,000 different scenarios, it looks at the results and calculates your probability of hitting the target based on the variables you defined.
NUMBERS DON’T LIE Even with an accurate setup, environmental factors will have a huge effect on the outcome of your shot in a hunting situation. (Photo courtesy of Tess Rousey) So, if we were to run the previously mentioned mule deer factors through Litz’s WEZ tool, what is your percentage of a kill-zone shot?
Jim Langley, competitive long-range shooter, ran those numbers for a long-range shooting class full of hunters and described the results. Reactions of shock from the results came from the students at the Gunsite Academy course I attended, taught by Il Ling New, Mario Marchman, and assisted by Langley. The chance of a kill shot? Only 31 percent. Instinctively, a confident hunter would scoff at that result, but the numbers don’t lie.
Long-range shooting schools are a great place to learn the capabilities of your equipment and yourself. (Photo courtesy of Tess Rousey) Those who have hunted, or even driven through Wyoming know that in our scenario, the wind is going to be the biggest factor. And as Lutz said: “Even high-performance rounds are highly susceptible to wind uncertainty.” Even with a long-range system that allows 120 MOA of elevation adjustment and personal shot-placement precision of .1 MOA at 100 yards, the WEZ tool shows how much environmental factors, including the ones you see and don’t see at an increased distance, are statistically decreasing the chance of impact—no matter the accuracy of your system. For instance, calculating our factors on a deer at 700 yards, the percentage of a kill shot only increases by 10 percent if we adjust our grouping precision from 1 MOA to .1 MOA. But it only increases by less than 3 percent from a .5-MOA grouping to a .1-MOA grouping.
“At long range, the environmental uncertainties play a much greater role in dispersion,” explained Litz. “But at short range, the environmental uncertainties are less important and so hit percentage is more driven by raw precision capability.”
(Photo courtesy of Tess Rousey) Today, businesses are building customized systems touting precision rifles paired with glass that is optimized for long-range hunting. And while solid systems do give an advantage, statistically they are at diminishing returns.
As a hunting photographer, I cringe at the number of times I have tagged along on a hunt with someone who has a brand-new setup and carries the confidence of an Olympic shooter—while only putting a couple of boxes of ammo downrange and never shooting at the distance they claim confidence in.
To shoot effectively at longer ranges, you must first be able to shoot consistent, tight groups at closer ranges. (Photo courtesy of Tess Rousey) The raw precision Litz is talking about takes old-fashioned range time with your hunting system. Long-range shooting classes like those at Gunsite will significantly help increase your precision and help you to get to know your capabilities and those of your system. Modern apps such as Hornady ’s 4DOF let you take what you learn from your gun on the range to the field. While you may not be able to chronograph your system while hunting, you can take what your learned on the range, edit the environmental factors of your specific location, and have more confidence at farther ranges than before you understood the statistics. And while long-range hunting may sound unethical, know precision hunting at your maximum effective range with your personal system is an ethical pursuit.
So, what is your number? Get out on the range and find your own personal trigger point.
MOSSBERG PATRIOT LR TACTICAL (Photo courtesy of Mossberg) With base features that match a custom build, you can turn your Mossberg Patriot LR Tactical into a precision-hunting system that is built to equal the high level of accuracy you’ve earned on the range. With a two-inch adjustable cheek rest and an adjustable stock, even the base model can fit nearly anyone from a petite female to a large male. After much field testing, Mossberg decided to add a top-mounted 20-MOA Picatinny rail/scope base as a standard model feature in order to compete with other long-range systems at a higher price point. To show just how serious Mossberg is in the long-range game, the Patriot utilizes MDT AICS-style magazines and features a threaded barrel for adding a suppressor or muzzle brake. CALIBERS: 6.5 Creedmoor, 6.5 PRC, .308 Win. MSRP: $1,085 mossberg.com
